2010 MS-70 Pandas:
Too much of a Good Thing?
June 25, 2010
MS-70 means a coin is flawless, without imperfection. In past years very few Chinese Panda coins have achieved this exalted grade. Lately, though, a lot of MS-70 2010 silver Pandas have come onto the market. Are these as desirable as the earlier years?
In the past MS-70 silver B.U. Pandas have often been good investments due to their rarity. For instance a 1989 1 oz. B.U. silver Panda graded MS-70 by NGC sold for $1,050 in January of 2010. Why? In this condition NGC has graded just 4 while PCGS has graded just one.
More recent years aren’t quite as rare but are still far from common. Populations of NGC MS-70s for dates struck after 2002 number in the hundreds. PCGS reports even lower quantities—just 23 in 2007 and 196 in 2009. All in all, these coins are attractive to collectors and sell for $100 and up.
Now we come to 2010. The first MS-70s appeared for sale in March and brought around $150 and up per coin. Since then there has been a steady stream of MS-70s on the market (particularly PCGS graded coins) and their auction price has declined to $70-$90. That seems pretty cheap for a MS-70, but is it? A glance at the latest PCGS population report suggests it may not be—there are 12,904 MS-70 2010s graded already! That is 60 times as many as in 2009 and more than 500 times as many MS-70s as in 2007. Wow!
With such a large pool of coins to draw on it could be years before the market absorbs them all. With such a large pool of coins to draw on it could easily be years before the market absorbs them all. I wouldn’t be surprised if before all is said and done the price of a 2010 MS-70 silver Panda comes down quite a bit still from where it is today. Only two mitigating factors come to mind: the price of silver skyrockets so the coin’s bullion value comes into play. In that case a buyer would be far better served by getting 2 or 3 common date Pandas for the same price today. The other possibility is that one of the two varieties of 2010 silver Pandas turns out to be scarce and MS-70s of this variety become sought-after coins; not exactly a sure thing.
So, if you want a perfect MS-70 2010 Panda for your collection right now, go ahead. The price isn’t too high and they are beautiful coins. However, anyone who wants a coin that is likely to appreciate in value might consider choosing from among the many reasonably priced older Pandas.
Best wishes
Peter Anthony
info@pandacollector.com